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GENI, GNOG, SGMS...
9/24/2021 16:09pm
Bet On It: Connecticut sports betting launch targeted for October 7

Welcome to the latest edition of "Bet On It," where The Fly looks at news and activity in the sports betting and iGaming space. 

SECTOR NEWS: Genius Sports (GENI) has won a new official data and trading partnership with Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG). Genius Sports established the global market for official data, which is sanctioned directly by the relevant sport's governing body. GNOG will be provided with Genius Sports' LiveData and LiveTrading solutions, delivering official data feeds and pricing across thousands of sporting events per year.

Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl raised the firm's price target on Scientific Games (SGMS) to $105 from $100 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst believes the transformation and upside potential remains "underappreciated." Further, Sigdahl thinks company fundamentals are improving with upside potential to Street expectations, expected proceeds for sports tech and lottery businesses, and stock multiple. While he is raising his price target to $105 based on higher lottery expectations and no other changes, the analyst believes there is potential to $190 per share with more bullish expectations for divestiture proceeds, higher RemainCo EBITDA expectations and a rerating of the stock's multiple. Shares of Scientific Games jumped 4% on Thursday afternoon following the analyst commentary. 

ZK International Group's (ZKIN) investee company MaximBet.com announced that it has secured market access in Ohio and Pennsylvania. After successfully launching in Colorado earlier this month, including achieving a record-setting number of bets on the opening weekend of the pro football season, MaximBet is quickly expanding its reach in avid sports markets across the U.S. and Canada. MaximBet's latest partnership will grant online sports betting access in Ohio. Separately, MaximBet will be gaining market access in Pennsylvania through Caesars Entertainment (CZR) in order to provide iGaming.

Autograph will debut the first set of non-fungible tokens co-designed by Tiger Woods on Autograph.io and for sale on DraftKings Marketplace. The NFTs will drop over the next week, DraftKings (DKNG) said in a statement.

DRAFTKINGS LOOKS TO TAKEOUT ENTAIN: Entain's (GMVHF) board confirmed that following an earlier approach from DraftKings (DKNG) at 2,500 pence per share which was rejected, a further proposal was received on September 19. Under the terms of DraftKings' latest proposal, DraftKings would offer 2,800 pence per Entain share consisting of 630 pence in cash and the balance payable in new DraftKings class A common shares. DraftKings proposed that the exchange ratio which would deliver the share element of the 2,800 pence per Entain share was to be fixed immediately prior to the first agreed public announcement. 2,800 pence per Entain share represented a premium of 46.2% to Entain's closing share price on September 20. The board of Entain "strongly believes in the future prospects of the company underpinned by its leading market positions, world class management team and industry-leading technology." The company said it has a "strong track record of growth and runway for further significant growth," with the potential for its total addressable market to grow by more than three times to $160B. The board of Entain "will carefully consider the proposal and a further announcement will be made as and when appropriate." DraftKings confirmed the offer, but would not comment further.

MGM Resorts (MGM) is considering ways to get control of the BetMGM online gambling business now that Entain, its partner in the joint business, has received an acquisition offer, Bloomberg's Christopher Palmeri, Scott Deveau, and Thomas Seal reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter. Entain said earlier this week that it is mulling a $22B merger bid from DraftKings (DKNG) as the U.K. company spurned an $11B offer from MGM Resorts earlier in 2021. MGM Resorts is a 50/50 partner in the business with Entain, and its agreement the company includes the power to block any deal with a competing business, like DraftKings. MGM Resorts management reportedly believes that gives them an upper hand to gain control of BetMGM without forking over a large sum of cash, said the sources. MGM is unlikely to bid again for all of Entain or try to buy out the other half of the venture, one of the people said.

Jefferies analyst James Wheatcroft says taking a "middle-of-the-pack" takeout multiple for Entain's businesses outside the U.S. and putting a DraftKings multiple on its U.S. business implies a fair value of GBp 2,820 for Entain. The analyst points out that MGM Resorts made a proposal for Entain earlier this year and has accumulated more cash on its balance sheet since. He thinks investors "may thus expect competition" for Entain if a formal takeover bid from DraftKings materializes. Entain as a standalone company "has a long growth runway and would therefore attract a material premium," contends Wheatcroft. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a GBp 2,335 price target. The analyst adds that antitrust issues "may be a concern" in any possible deal.

While a deal with Entain (GMVHF) would be complex, Sigdahl said any potential outcome of DraftKings' (DKNG) pursuit that he envisions would be "neutral to positive" for DraftKings and "unanimously negative for competitors." In a case where DraftKings acquires Entain, sells Entain's 50% BetMGM joint venture interest back to MGM Resorts and keeps the international assets and technology, he views it as a positive since it would be highly accretive and "immediately transform the company into a global online gambling leader." In a case where MGM outbids DraftKings for Entain, he would see that as positive for DraftKings since it would force a main competitor to significantly increase its acquisition cost. If DraftKings were to acquire Entain including the 50% of the BetMGM JV, it would be positive, but he doesn't think MGM would allow that to happen, Sigdahl added. He has a Buy rating and $70 price target on DraftKings shares.

ROCKY RECOVERY IN MACAU: Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) have been in focus this week after Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates said on CNBC on Monday that he's short shares of the company and that the stock should be trading in the $40s. In midday trading Wynn was down 3% to $80.51. Chanos said Wynn's U.S. casinos are currently being valued at 20 times estimated 2022 EBITDA, which is too high. He also highlighted the slowdown in Macau traffic and the company's debt levels. However, this sentiment is in opposition to that of Barron's Lawrence Strauss. Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) shares suffered sharp losses the past couple of days amid jitters that the Macau government will impose more onerous concession, or licensing, agreements when they expire next year,  he wrote in this week's edition of Barron's. The rout, however, could be setting up a buying opportunity for investors who are patient and have a bankroll to withstand the unlucky streak, some analysts say. Yesterday, in an interview on CNBC's Mad Money, Wynn's CEO Matt Maddox said Macau will be just like Las Vegas post-Covid. The demand for Macau is insatiable, he noted. According to Maddox, the recent moves by the Macau government to oversee the industry are practical, not punitive. Business in Las Vegas and Boston is incredibly strong, he said. "We've never experienced the type of business we're seeing now."

On Friday, Credit Suisse analyst Kenneth Fong noted that Macau has declared a "state of immediate prevention" of new COVID cases, starting from midnight on September 25, which means Macau is now facing a high risk for community spread of COVID after the 65th COVID case was discovered in region. The government also declared a similar status on August 3 and subsequently enforced tight traffic control for seven days, points out Fong, who said "traffic has taken almost one month to recover due to the COVID cases both in Macau and China." Sporadic outbreaks in China led to temporary traffic restrictions and gross gaming revenue slowdowns in February, June and August, added Fong, who thinks Macau's 2022 GGR may "see downside risk which is not in the street's base case."

ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED IN OHIO: Ohio sports betting is back to the forefront of the legislative mindset after the Senate called for a conference committee to settle differences, Matthew Waters of Legal Sports Report reported. What the particular differences are at this point are ambiguous. The House has not offered sports betting legislation of its own this year, as the Senate spent months crafting its proposal SB 176. However, the bill up for committee is HB 29 instead, a bill originally focused on veteran ID cards, which the Senate tried to amend with an amended proposal to legalize Ohio sportsbooks. Reportedly, the Senate believes there is no reason not to accept its proposal. The House already refused to accept the amendments earlier this year. Waters noted that there is still time to get a bill passed this year and Ohio’s legislature can run through December 31 if needed. As a reminder, the Ohio Senate has proposed;

  • 25 online licenses, but there could be more skins than that
  • Up to 40 retail sportsbook licenses available, as amended
  • Up to 20 liquor-licensed establishments can get a license to host sports betting kiosks
  • 10% tax on sports betting revenue regardless of how the bet is placed

SECOND COMPACT TO BE PUBLISHED IN CONNECTICUT: The amended compact between the state of Connecticut and the Mashantucket Pequot Indians was uploaded to the Public Inspection part of the Federal Register earlier today with a Monday publish date. Waters noted that while it is not clear why it took nearly two more weeks than the Mohegan tribe for the Mashantucket Pequot compact, the publication means online sportsbooks can launch October 7 in time for Week 5 NFL betting. Although, it is likely the first legal bets in the state will be made before then as retail betting can take place on tribal land about a week after that tribe’s compact is published, a spokesman for Governor Ned Lamont told LSR. Reportedly, both casinos in the state are keeping their lips sealed as to when a retail launch might take place.

PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Bally's (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), Gan Limited (GAN), Genius Sports (GENI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn National (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Scientific Games (SGMS), Score Media (SCR) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

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